Pennsylvania Birth Projections
Division of Health Informatics
Posted 2023-10-24
Introduction
This page shows the results of models used to calculate projections for the number of Pennsylvania resident births from 2022 to 2023. The projected figures should be used cautiously. Considerable variation may occur between these projections and the final data from 2022 to 2023, especially for the forecasts for small counties. A short description of the data and methods used to calculate the projections follows the results.
Download statistics
Download all statistics from this page here.
Pennsylvania total
The number of Pennsylvania resident births is projected to be 131,883 in 2023, which is a change of -0.6 percent compared to the number of births in 2021, the most recent year with final data. This is an average annual change in the number of births of -0.3 percent, compared to the average annual change in the number of births of -0.4 percent from 2000 to 2021.
The plot below shows the number of Pennsylvania resident births from 2000 to 2021, as well as the corresponding projections for 2022 to 2023.
Pennsylvania counties
The table below shows the number of Pennsylvania resident births by county for 2000, 2010 and 2021; the corresponding projections for 2023; and the average annual percent change in the number of births from 2000 to 2021 and from 2021 to 2023.
We can also display data from the previous table as a map of Pennsylvania counties. The map below shows the average annual percent change in the number of Pennsylvania resident births from 2000 to 2021 and from 2021 to 2023.
Data and methods
All data used on this page are from the Pennsylvania Birth Certificate dataset. An exponential smoothing state space model was used to project the number of births by year for 2022 to 2023 for Pennsylvania and each county in Pennsylvania. The county projections were then udpated to be consistent with the Pennsylvania total.