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COVID-19 Trajectory Animations

The trajectory animation was inspired from a recent YouTube video, “How To Tell If We're Beating COVID-19." The basis for viewing our data in this way is that the number of new cases is proportional to the number of existing cases. When disease transmission is uncontrolled, exponential growth will occur until effective public health control measures are in place (note that this can take weeks to be evident in the data, depending on the situation). When you view the animation, you are seeing a time-lapse plot of the average number of newly reported cases over the last 7 days (y-axis) against the cumulative number of reported cases (x-axis) by region. Please note both axes are on a log10 scale. You can see that all regions and the state as a whole, have been traveling along the trajectory of exponential growth for several weeks now. Visualizing the data in this manner provides some insight as to when exponential growth for a particular region stops (i.e., drops off the curve).  And when exponential grow stops, we are starting to see a decrease in the growth rate of new cases and hopefully the “light at the end of the tunnel.”

Cumulative Incident Rate of COVID-19 Cases by County

Cumulative Incident Rate of COVID-19 Cases by County

COVID-19 Cases by Onset Date

COVID-19 Cases by Onset Date

Trajectory of Confirmed COVID-19 Cases (3-day Rolling Average) by Region

Trajectory of confirmed COVID-19 cases 3 day

Trajectory of Confirmed COVID-19 Cases (7-day Rolling Average) by Region

Trajectory of Confirmed COVID-19 Cases (7-day Rolling Average) by Region


Trajectory of Confirmed COVID-19 Cases (7-day Rolling Average) For Northcentral

Trajectory of Confirmed COVID-19 Cases (7-day Rolling Average) For Northcentral

Trajectory of Confirmed COVID-19 Cases (7-day Rolling Average) For Northeast

Trajectory of Confirmed COVID-19 Cases (7-day Rolling Average) For Northeast

Trajectory of Confirmed COVID-19 Cases (7-day Rolling Average) For Northwest

Trajectory of Confirmed COVID-19 Cases (7-day Rolling Average) For Northwest

Trajectory of Confirmed COVID-19 Cases (7-day Rolling Average) For Southcentral

Trajectory of Confirmed COVID-19 Cases (7-day Rolling Average) For Southcentral

Trajectory of Confirmed COVID-19 Cases (7-day Rolling Average) For Southeast

Trajectory of Confirmed COVID-19 Cases (7-day Rolling Average) For Southeast

Trajectory of Confirmed COVID-19 Cases (7-day Rolling Average) For Southwest

plot_SW7day

Source: Pennsylvania National Electronic Disease Surveillance System (PA-NEDSS) as of 12:00 a.m. on 5/21/2020